{"id":187929,"date":"2026-10-12T16:45:42","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T22:45:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/tecscience.tec.mx\/es\/?p=187929"},"modified":"2026-10-12T16:45:58","modified_gmt":"2026-10-12T22:45:58","slug":"nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/tecscience.tec.mx\/es\/negocios-innovacion\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia\/","title":{"rendered":"Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2026: las decisiones individuales que mueven la\u00a0econom\u00eda"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Para entender c\u00f3mo funciona una econom\u00eda, primero hay que entender c\u00f3mo toman decisiones las personas y las empresas. Cuando un banco central modifica los tipos de inter\u00e9s, no cambia directamente el consumo, la inversi\u00f3n o el empleo. Cambia los incentivos y las expectativas de millones de personas que, con sus decisiones, terminan transformando la econom\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El <a href=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/live\/RJjHROJh-FI?si=yJy2rBgbJd5GAGlV&amp;t=1110\">Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2026<\/a>, concedido a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/2026\/hall\/facts\/\">Robert E. Hall<\/a> y <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nobelprize.org\/prizes\/economic-sciences\/2026\/woodford\/facts\/\">Michael Woodford<\/a>, reconoce, precisamente, la importancia de conectar las decisiones individuales con el funcionamiento de la econom\u00eda en su conjunto.<\/p>\n\n\n<blockquote class=\"instagram-media\" data-instgrm-captioned data-instgrm-permalink=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DeaSrs5jLbo\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" data-instgrm-version=\"14\" style=\"background:#FFF;border:0;border-radius:3px;margin: 1px;max-width:540px;min-width:326px;padding:0;width:99.375%;width:-webkit-calc(100% - 2px);width:calc(100% - 2px)\">\n<div style=\"padding:16px\"> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DeaSrs5jLbo\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" style=\"background:#FFFFFF;line-height:0;padding:0 0;text-align:center;text-decoration:none;width:100%\" target=\"_blank\"> <\/p>\n<div style=\"display: flex;flex-direction: row;align-items: center\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 50%;flex-grow: 0;height: 40px;margin-right: 14px;width: 40px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex;flex-direction: column;flex-grow: 1;justify-content: center\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 4px;flex-grow: 0;height: 14px;margin-bottom: 6px;width: 100px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 4px;flex-grow: 0;height: 14px;width: 60px\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 19% 0\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display:block;height:50px;margin:0 auto 12px;width:50px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"padding-top: 8px\">\n<div style=\"color:#3897f0;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:550;line-height:18px\">Ver esta publicaci\u00f3n en Instagram<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"padding: 12.5% 0\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex;flex-direction: row;margin-bottom: 14px;align-items: center\">\n<div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 50%;height: 12.5px;width: 12.5px;transform: translateX(0px) translateY(7px)\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;height: 12.5px;transform: rotate(-45deg) translateX(3px) translateY(1px);width: 12.5px;flex-grow: 0;margin-right: 14px;margin-left: 2px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 50%;height: 12.5px;width: 12.5px;transform: translateX(9px) translateY(-18px)\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: 8px\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 50%;flex-grow: 0;height: 20px;width: 20px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0;height: 0;border-top: 2px solid transparent;border-left: 6px solid #f4f4f4;border-bottom: 2px solid transparent;transform: translateX(16px) translateY(-4px) rotate(30deg)\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"margin-left: auto\">\n<div style=\"width: 0px;border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4;border-right: 8px solid transparent;transform: translateY(16px)\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;flex-grow: 0;height: 12px;width: 16px;transform: translateY(-4px)\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"width: 0;height: 0;border-top: 8px solid #F4F4F4;border-left: 8px solid transparent;transform: translateY(-4px) translateX(8px)\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<div style=\"display: flex;flex-direction: column;flex-grow: 1;justify-content: center;margin-bottom: 24px\">\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 4px;flex-grow: 0;height: 14px;margin-bottom: 6px;width: 224px\"><\/div>\n<div style=\"background-color: #F4F4F4;border-radius: 4px;flex-grow: 0;height: 14px;width: 144px\"><\/div>\n<\/div>\n<p><\/a><\/p>\n<p style=\"color:#c9c8cd;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;line-height:17px;margin-bottom:0;margin-top:8px;overflow:hidden;padding:8px 0 7px;text-align:center;white-space:nowrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.instagram.com\/p\/DeaSrs5jLbo\/?utm_source=ig_embed&amp;utm_campaign=loading\" style=\"color:#c9c8cd;font-family:Arial,sans-serif;font-size:14px;font-style:normal;font-weight:normal;line-height:17px;text-decoration:none\" target=\"_blank\">Una publicaci\u00f3n compartida por TecScience (@tecscienceweb)<\/a><\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Los premiados y sus investigaciones<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Robert E. Hall, de la Universidad de Stanford, ha dedicado buena parte de su investigaci\u00f3n a comprender c\u00f3mo las expectativas condicionan el consumo y c\u00f3mo las fricciones de los mercados laborales pueden generar desempleo persistente y grandes fluctuaciones econ\u00f3micas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Michael Woodford, de la Universidad de Columbia, ha centrado sus investigaciones en c\u00f3mo la pol\u00edtica monetaria influye sobre esas decisiones. Sus trabajos muestran que los bancos centrales no act\u00faan \u00fanicamente modificando los tipos de inter\u00e9s, sino <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nobel-de-economia-2022-a-la-prediccion-de-las-crisis-bancarias-191571\">tambi\u00e9n condicionando las expectativas<\/a>. La credibilidad y la comunicaci\u00f3n pueden ser tan importantes como sus propias decisiones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El premio pone el foco en la conexi\u00f3n entre tres conceptos fundamentales:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ol class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Microeconom\u00eda: Hall recupera la <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Hip%C3%B3tesis_del_ingreso_permanente\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">hip\u00f3tesis de la renta permanente de Friedman<\/a>, demostrando que, bajo determinadas condiciones, los cambios en el consumo deber\u00edan responder a informaci\u00f3n inesperada. Pero <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nobel-de-economia-a-una-nueva-forma-de-entender-el-mundo-educacion-migraciones-y-salario-minimo-169303\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">las decisiones individuales se enfrentan a fricciones<\/a>: encontrar empleo, contratar o ajustar salarios no es inmediato ni gratuito. La racionalidad individual no garantiza el equilibrio colectivo.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Macroeconom\u00eda: Woodford conecta esas decisiones con los grandes agregados econ\u00f3micos mediante los modelos neokeynesianos. Cuando los precios son r\u00edgidos, los cambios en las expectativas y los tipos de inter\u00e9s afectan a la producci\u00f3n y al empleo. La <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Curva_de_Phillips\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">curva de Phillips<\/a> deja de ser una simple relaci\u00f3n entre inflaci\u00f3n y desempleo: lo que esperamos que ocurra ma\u00f1ana <a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/global-economy-2023-how-countries-around-the-world-are-tackling-the-cost-of-living-crisis-196740\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">condiciona la inflaci\u00f3n de hoy<\/a>.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Estabilizaci\u00f3n: Woodford recupera el concepto de <a href=\"https:\/\/nadaesgratis.es\/admin\/el-tipo-de-interes-natural-navegando-bajos-las-estrellas\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">tipo de inter\u00e9s natural de Wicksell<\/a> \u2013ser\u00eda la tasa de inter\u00e9s real que sostiene la econom\u00eda a m\u00e1xima producci\u00f3n mientras mantiene la inflaci\u00f3n constante.\u2013 y demuestra la importancia de su diferencia respecto al tipo de inter\u00e9s real, sobre el que influye el banco central mediante los tipos nominales y las expectativas de inflaci\u00f3n. La credibilidad de la pol\u00edtica monetaria resulta fundamental: un banco central puede influir en las decisiones econ\u00f3micas de hoy modificando las expectativas sobre sus actuaciones futuras.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Se\u00f1ales, decisiones y consecuencias<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En definitiva, la pol\u00edtica monetaria no funciona en el vac\u00edo. Sus efectos dependen de c\u00f3mo interpretamos las se\u00f1ales, de lo que esperamos del futuro y de las decisiones que tomamos en consecuencia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La gran cuesti\u00f3n no es solamente qu\u00e9 hacen los bancos centrales, sino c\u00f3mo reaccionamos todos los dem\u00e1s.<em> (<a href=\"https:\/\/theconversation.com\/nobel-de-economia-2026-las-decisiones-individuales-que-mueven-la-economia-293133\">The Conversation<\/a>)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Cuando un banco central sube o baja las tasas de inter\u00e9s, no mueve la econom\u00eda directamente: cambia lo que millones de personas esperan del futuro.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":187945,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_eb_attr":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[100],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-187929","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-negocios-innovacion"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v21.0 (Yoast SEO v28.6) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2026: c\u00f3mo las expectativas influyen en la econom\u00eda | TecScience<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00bfC\u00f3mo influyen las expectativas en el consumo, el empleo y la inflaci\u00f3n? 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El Nobel de Econom\u00eda 2026 reconoce investigaciones que conectan las decisiones individuales con la econom\u00eda en su conjunto.\",\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tecscience.tec.mx\\\/es\\\/negocios-innovacion\\\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia\\\/#breadcrumb\"},\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\\\/\\\/tecscience.tec.mx\\\/es\\\/negocios-innovacion\\\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia\\\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"es\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tecscience.tec.mx\\\/es\\\/negocios-innovacion\\\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia\\\/#primaryimage\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tecscience.tec.mx\\\/es\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/8\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\\\/\\\/tecscience.tec.mx\\\/es\\\/wp-content\\\/uploads\\\/sites\\\/8\\\/2026\\\/10\\\/nobel-economia-2026-expectativas-economia.jpg\",\"width\":750,\"height\":500,\"caption\":\"Robert E. 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