Is there any benefit for humanity from population growth? And what challenges will we face as a society with an increasing global population?

According to reports from the United Nations (UN), we are now more than 8 billion inhabitants spread across various regions of the world; this figure was reached in November 2022, and it is projected that by 2050, demographic growth will lead us to surpass 9.7 billion people on Earth.

Population censuses also indicate that global demographic growth is occurring steadily, despite declines in birth and mortality rates, increased life expectancy, and migration over recent decades.

The Challenge of Keeping Up with Policies

The size and rate of population growth are not inherently beneficial or detrimental, says Carlos Brambila, PhD in Demography from the University of Chicago and researcher at the School of Government and Public Transformation at Tec de Monterrey, in an interview with TecScience. He explains that these outcomes depend on public policies and decision-making at all levels of government.

In each country, governments at various levels implement public policies that can affect population growth and the economy. Global organizations such as the United Nations, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund (IMF) also undertake actions that can impact specific regions and countries.

Among these actions, there’s the demand for goods and services, which can be stimulated by population size or demographic growth. Such actions could strengthen economic activity and promote job creation in a region. However, there is also a reliance on how public policies either foster or limit these economic opportunities, adds Brambila, who is also the director of the Doctorate in Public Policy at Tec de Monterrey.

With demographic growth, there can be an increase in potential consumers, benefiting businesses and the economy overall. It can also lead to a larger workforce and improved access to health, education, and technological innovation services.

However, demographic growth can also become an obstacle to societal development if public policies fail to capitalize on these benefits and address potential challenges such as cultural integration and resistance to movements like migration, which, when massive, can generate social and political tensions.

“Public services can expand with demographic growth, but if public policies do not react and respond in a timely manner, populations can become marginalized; in these cases, demographic growth can become a problem instead of a stimulus for development and societal progress,” comments Brambila.

Birth Rates Declining While Population Grows

Currently, India and China, each with over 1.4 billion inhabitants, are the world’s most populous countries, comprising approximately one-third of the global population. However, both countries have seen declines in their birth rates, leading to various challenges.

In 1979, when China reached 1 billion inhabitants and amid concerns about a demographic explosion, China implemented the “one-child policy,” which lasted until the last decade when couples were allowed to have two, and eventually three, children.

“These policies achieved a reduction in fertility; currently, this has translated into a ‘lack of children,’ rapid population aging, and, regionally, in various areas of China and India, a lack of workforce,” comments Brambila.

Similar scenarios exist in Europe, with countries like Germany, France, and Italy experiencing low birth rates. The United Nations Population Fund predicts a 7% decline in the region by 2050.

For these and other countries, such as the United States, rapid post-World War II birth rate increases led to initiatives to stabilize demographic growth, along with public policies aimed at generating employment, educational and health services, and promoting economic activity.

“For example, in Mexico, we had a fertility rate of 5.8 children per couple and now we are below two… In the cases of China and India, with the sharp decline in their fertility, they are seeking to stabilize their growth again. There is a demographic inertia where the decline in fertility does impact, population begins to decline, and in the coming decades fertility levels could be restored,” adds Brambila.

One concept aiding in stabilizing population growth is replacement fertility, where a couple has enough children to replace themselves upon death.

High Fertility in Least Developed Countries

Despite stabilization in some regions, there are still countries where fertility remains high. For instance, Niger, Angola, and the Democratic Republic of Congo currently have some of the highest birth rates in the world. Brambila suggests this may be due to historical economic roles of children within families in least developed countries.

“In agricultural environments, rural families needed child labor, and children were part of family economies. Today, in many African countries, children contribute to the family economy through child labor, which remains significant. Later, as parents age, children become the family’s support,” he adds.

This contrasts with developed countries, where children are no longer economically necessary for families. Factors such as family norms seeking better quality of life for children, early household departure before adulthood, social values like contraceptive methods, access to health services, and increasing female participation in labor markets are influencing fertility rates.

Moreover, global life expectancy is currently around 72.8 years, nine years longer than in the early 1990s, with expectations of reaching 77.2 years by mid-century.

Changing Demographic Composition

Due to factors like wars, internal conflicts, hunger, and other socio-political issues, population displacements may reshape the demographic composition of developed countries.

“The demographic composition of countries like Germany or Mexico, proud of their national origins or ethnicities, will cease to exist as we know it in the next 50 years. All adult populations will be replaced by new generations from any origin,” comments Brambila.

In countries where birth rates have declined, such as Germany, France, or Italy, demographic growth has continued primarily due to migration.

“United States, more open to migration, also maintains relatively low fertility rates but, with greater cultural and demographic diversity, remains stable due to birth patterns of populations arriving from elsewhere in the world,” he adds.

Brambila emphasizes that with large population volumes, governments must plan to tackle various challenges, including economic ones, which involve considering factors like employment levels, production, and internal and external trade. While promoting wealth generation, they must also address challenges such as growing inequalities and environmental impacts resulting from human activities.

“A city or country that lacks the capacity for urban and regional planning is condemning its population and future generations, and this will have a global impact,” concludes Brambila.

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