In Mexico, nearly half of the drinking water supply is lost before it ever reaches users. According to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), leaks in distribution networks waste around 46%.

This loss is linked to factors such as inadequate maintenance and the aging of dams, aqueducts, water treatment plants, and thousands of miles of pipelines. Beyond wasting water, the deterioration of this infrastructure also increases the risk of service disruptions and higher operating costs.

Against this backdrop, Aldo Iván Ramírez and Ismael Aguilar, researchers at Tecnológico de Monterrey’s Water Center, conducted a study analyzing the aging of water infrastructure nationwide and in the metropolitan areas of Monterrey, Guadalajara, and Mexico City.

The project, Obsolescence of Water Infrastructure in Mexico: Challenges and Perspectives, co-funded by Tecnológico de Monterrey and the Gonzalo Río Arronte Foundation (FGRA), aimed to provide an assessment that could help guide public policy decisions.

“Infrastructure means service. That’s why we build these systems in the first place, and when infrastructure isn’t working properly or providing that service, then we have a problem,” explains Ramírez, director of the center and a researcher at the School of Engineering and Sciences (EIC).

The findings were published in a report showing that, on average, some of these structures and systems have already exceeded the service life they were designed for. In cities, moreover, aging is not uniform, and some of the oldest networks are concentrated in central areas.

An Indicator to Measure Aging Infrastructure

Aguilar, a researcher at the center and professor at the School of Social Sciences and Government (ESCG), says that to conduct the assessment, the team developed an indicator that compares the age of a piece of infrastructure with the service life it was designed for: the aging factor.

The logic behind the indicator is straightforward: if a pipeline is 30 years old and was designed to operate for 40 years, its aging factor is 0.75. In other words, once the indicator exceeds 1.00, the infrastructure has surpassed its intended service life.

Exceeding that timeframe does not necessarily mean the infrastructure will stop working, Aguilar notes, since its condition also depends on the materials used, operating conditions, and the maintenance it has received. Instead, the indicator serves as an early warning, helping identify where a more detailed assessment, maintenance, or potential replacement may be needed.

More sophisticated models already exist for estimating deterioration and potential infrastructure failures, but they require historical data that is not always available in Mexico.

“Mexico doesn’t have that data. We couldn’t move toward more sophisticated methods for measuring and predicting infrastructure failures, but this indicator, even though it may look very simple, is extremely powerful. Its development is backed by an analysis of highly relevant international literature, where more complex metrics are used,” he says.

The researchers applied the aging factor nationwide to infrastructure for which they were able to find age data in official databases maintained by Mexico’s National Water Commission (Conagua) and National Meteorological Service (SMN). For weather and hydrometric monitoring stations, the team had to develop an algorithm to extract the year each station began operating and then use that information to calculate its age.

Dams and Monitoring Networks Have Exceeded Their Service Life

The researchers then compared the age of each piece of infrastructure with the number of years it is expected to remain operational, based on specialized literature and technical criteria reviewed for the study.

“We found three systems that already have an aging factor above one, which is where the red flags start to appear: weather monitoring networks, hydrometric networks, and large dams,” Ramírez says.

The greatest degree of aging was identified among 208 of the country’s major dams, which have an average age of 67.3 years, compared with a reference service life of 50 years, resulting in an aging factor of 1.42.

Weather monitoring networks came next, with an aging factor of 1.34, followed by hydrometric networks at 1.27. Among the former, 81% of the stations analyzed had already exceeded their estimated 40-year service life; among the latter, 64% had done so.

Aqueducts had an aging factor of 0.85, with an average age of 34 years compared with an estimated service life of 40 years. However, while they remain below the threshold overall, the report notes that 40% of the country’s major aqueducts have already exceeded their service life, and more than half have been operating for at least 35 years.

Aging Is Not the Same Across an Entire City

The researchers also analyzed the metropolitan areas of Mexico City, Monterrey, and Guadalajara, focusing particularly on drinking water distribution and sanitary sewer networks, as well as aqueducts, drinking water treatment plants, and wastewater treatment facilities. Their analysis showed that aging varies depending on both the type of infrastructure and the area of each city.

Mexico City had the highest average aging factor of the three, at 1.14, followed by Monterrey at 0.87 and Guadalajara at 0.78. However, the researchers found that these averages can mask much older infrastructure in certain areas.

In Mexico City, the highest levels of aging were found in aqueducts and sewer systems; in Monterrey, in drinking water treatment plants; and in Guadalajara, in aqueducts and the water distribution network.

According to Ramírez, identifying these differences can help water utilities decide where to focus their resources for maintenance, rehabilitation, or replacement.

“This factor could even help guide investments, which are sometimes very limited, but ultimately need to be put to the best possible use. Water utilities usually have a major challenge on their hands and very few resources to address it,” says the director of the Water Center.

As next steps, the researchers hope to expand the assessment to other cities and countries, work with national agencies such as INEGI to improve the information available, and move into a new phase aimed at estimating how much it would cost to rehabilitate, modernize, or replace infrastructure that is already showing signs of aging.

Did you find this story interesting? Would you like to publish it? Contact our content editor to learn more: marianaleonm@tec.mx